Race to Racecourse road

It is too early to predict what will be the outcome of the General Elections! If the trends has anything to indicate, then clearly we many assume the country is going towards Hung Parliament one more time. From mid 90’s the nature of Indian polity has shifted from two party system to coalition formations. Especially regional parties started playing significant role in forming governments at the centre. Either National Front supported by BJP, United Front with the help of Congress, NDA led by BJP or UPA led by Congress from 1989 till 2004 coalition governments ruled the country.

Theoretically two key parties BJP and Congress are holding the power but with the vital support by many regional parties. Even 2009 General Elections will see 3 key pre-poll alliances one each led by BJP (NDA), Congress (UPA) and Communist parties (Third Front). In politics no one is a friend or an enemy. Alliances and groups blossom and perish with time. After elections the numbers game will change the loyalties and alliances. Many regional parties which are not part of any pre-poll alliances such as Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Praja Rajyam could play the role of king makers.

Key numbers: As of today no single party is confidence enough to gain majority and form government. Neither the Congress nor BJP are sure of their position. If look into the previous two election stats, six recognized national parties put together won 364 and 369 seats in 2004 and 1999 respectively. Out of which congress won 145 and 114 and BJP 138 and 182 in 2004 and 1999. In both the elections regional parties won 150 plus seats. At the end these numbers that decided the rulers of the nation. Communists who never crossed 50 seats in general elections will wait till the elections are over to open their cards. Meanwhile parties like RJD, SP, BSP, DMK, AIDMK, TDP, NCP and TRS will split the vote bank in the name of region, religion, communities and castes paving red carpet for the hung parliament.

BJP Vs Congress: Both the leading parties are lack of strategy to outsmart other. BJP shed the word ‘Indian’ and replaced it with ‘Bharat’, perhaps more Indianized word? Congress countered with ‘Jai ho’ song from Slumdog millionaire and once again is singing the ‘Am Admi’ Mantra. BJP promises a ‘Stable and decisive’ government, however, only final scoresheet will tell which party is close to give a government. Leadership is another issue that may change the face of these elections. Congress solely depends upon the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty and BJP on Hindusim. BJP finally placed the reins in L K Advani’s hands and declared him as its Prime ministerial candidate. Congress has no option but to announce Manmohan Singh is their candidate, however in case Congress gets the full majority the candidate may change. If anyone observes the congress campaign closely will be clear about it.

The main contrast between 2004 and 2009 elections are lack of issues in 2004 and issues like terrorism, social conflicts, political arrangements used to remain in power and economy in 2009. Though political pundits look at these broader issues, voters may debate only local and regional issues. Congress is following the footsteps of BJP blowing the trumpet of its achievement. With the current recession, loss of jobs, dipping economy congress publicity may kill their chances in the elections just as the ‘India Shining’ campaign did for BJP.

Young India: After the crazy win of T20 Cricket World Cup, suddenly in every field Young India is given prominence. 2004 elections have seen many young faces in the parliament. How they fared in and out of parliament will be known in coming elections. These elections are definitely a litmus test for all those young politicians and for the young India as well. With 65 percent of India’s voters are under the age of 35, making up the sizeable chunk of the electorate. Youth is looking at these elections in different way. For them unemployment, terrorism and relations with US are more prominent than any other issue according to studies. Among the prominent Young politicians who are going to shape up the future of the country are: Rahul Gandhi (Amethi), Milind Deora (South Mumbai), Jayant Chaudhary (Mathura), Sachin Pilot (Ajmer), Akhilesh Yadav (Kannauj) Jyotiraditya Scindia, Jiten Prasad, Sandeep Dikshit, Dayanidhi Maran, Uddhav Thackeray and Varun Gandhi (Pilibhit). Advani opened a facebook group to attract young India. But the question is in what way they will respond?

Vote bank: Religion, caste remarks and Secularism, populism are dominating factors of Indian politics. “Vote on issues, not on caste”, NGOs may publicise but outcome of the results by far proved that caste loyalties are very strong in this country. Election Commission took BJP candidate Varun Gandhi’s anti-Muslim remarks very serious and criminal charges filed against him. BJP is confident that its vote bank will not effect by Varun’s comment. In previous elections 55 per cent of upper caste Hindus voted BJP led NDA. OBCs also voted in the range of 40-50 percent to BJP. While Congress secured 35 per cent of Dalit vote and 47 per cent Muslim vote. However, over the six elections from 1989 to 2004 the Congress's vote share fell steadily from just under 40 percent to 26 percent. Congress’s loss is BJP’s gain. BJP vote share rise from 11per cent in 1989 to 25 per cent in 1998, sliding to 22 per cent in 2004.

Key States: UP (80 seats), AP (42 seats), Tamil Nadu (39 seats) and Bihar (40 seats). For both Congress and BJP, Uttar Pradesh results will be very crucial. Main regional parties BSP and SP’s performance in the state will decide the fate of the leading national parties. As far as Andhra Pradesh is concerned ruling Congress may face set back in the State! Chiranjeevi’s Praja Rajyam may split the vote bank. Who will benefit, TDP or Congress or Praja Rajyam itself is hard to tell. TRS that was more than help to Congress in 2004 elections this time joined hands with TDP may tilt the outcome. In Bihar, BJP as of now going strong as far as alliance is concerned. Losing Lalu’s RJD support is a setback to Congress. In Tamil Nadu, wind is towards AIDMK. DMK, MDMK, PMK may lose heavily.

Countdown: Thanks to Election commission and Supreme Court media hands are tied and they will not be in a position to give exit or opinion polls 48 hours before the elections. So no more controversies as far as poll outcome and debate are concerned. Not exactly! Pre-poll surveys are already rolling. According to India TV survey BJP led NDA is predicted to get 187 seats and Congress led UPA to bag 178 seats. The month long general elections to the 15th Lok Sabha will be held in five phases on April 16, April 22, April 23, April 30, May 7 and May 13, and the results will be announced on May 16.